AUDUSD has been moving higher in the past few days but it could be a large correction from the longer-term downtrend.

Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level lines up with an area of interest which might hold as resistance. The 100 SMA is still far below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the downtrend is likely to carry on. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions so the recent rally might soon be over. Similarly, RSI is in the overbought area as well.If the selloff resumes,  AUDUSD could fall back to the previous lows around the .6900 handle or much lower. On the other hand, a break past the 61.8% Fib or .7200 area could mean that a reversal is taking place.

The main event risk for this setup is the FOMC statement later on this week, as the Fed is widely expected to refrain from announcing any monetary policy changes. The FOMC is also set to print its economic projections and any positive revisions could keep rate hike expectations in play, possibly keeping the dollar supported. On the other hand, the lack of commitment to any kind of tightening for this year could mean losses for the US dollar.

As for the Aussie, the RBA meeting minutes released earlier today revealed a downbeat tone, as policymakers shared concerns about China and commodity prices. Although the central bank kept rates on hold in their official statement, the tone of the minutes suggests that they could be open to further easing if necessary.

Other potential catalysts include the release of US retail sales data today, which might show a 0.3% uptick in the headline figure for August and a 0.2% increase in the core version of the report.

Editor’s Note: Equity investors/traders can use the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA, quote) ETF to take positions in the Aussie dollar without a FOREX account.  The ETF looks to track the price of the Aussie dollar (AUDUSD), minus ETF fee. The fund seeks to reflect the price of the Aussie dollar (AUDUSD) with the shares representing a cost-effective investment relative to investing in the FOREX market.

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