With another trading week over, and Non Farm Payroll having come and gone for another month, markets in general are now looking forward, as the minor reversal in the US dollar’s unstoppable progress appears to have simply been a temporary pause and reaction to the worse than expected employment data.
For longer term oil traders it’s been a question of being patient and waiting, as the commodity continued to consolidate in a narrow trading range, following the extended move lower of early October, which saw the price of oil break through the floor of potential resistance in the $88 per barrel region, before moving down to consolidate in the $79 to $83 per barrel region, where it has remained since.
For equity bulls, the nightmare is over for now. For gold and silver bugs it’s just beginning. If yesterday’s price action was concerning, the overnight news from Japan has opened the trap door for both metals, which has seen them plunge in early trading, as the Bank of Japan sent shock waves through the market announcing an acceleration of its bond buying program.
For gold, October could best be described as a game of two halves, with the rally of the early part of the month, now appearing to have run out to steam as the longer term bearish sentiment begins to dominate once more.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) lost momentum on Monday morning after reports that Goldman Sachs had trimmed its forecasts for crude oil prices.
The last few days have been interesting ones for crude oil (USO, quote) traders, with the commodity mirroring the volatile price action and associated volume profiles of related markets, and suggesting in turn, that we may be approaching a pause, and possible bottom to the current bearish trend.
The recent rally for soft commodities appears to have stalled once again last week, as improving weather conditions across the US mid West allowed harvesting to get back on track with the forecast for a record crop now back in focus.
GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.6524, the price action from 1.5951 is likely consolidation of the downtrend.
Let me start this analysis for oil, by highlighting an issue which I always find deeply ironic which is this – when oil prices rise quickly, a hue and cry results with the ‘evil’ speculators blamed who quickly become public enemy number one.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) remained below $89 on Tuesday as a global supply glut continued to weight on prices.
