In writing any market analysis, I am always conscious of two things. First, it is very easy to forget that the associated buying and selling in any market embraces the full spectrum, from long term investor, to the short term speculator.
Brent crude oil (BNO,quote) gained momentum on Wednesday as growth in industrialized countries became more likely. The commodity traded at $107.10 at 6:30 GMT on Wednesday morning.
‘Wind down’ is not withdrawal but watch negative news flow in the US; treading water is not growth so keep the champagne on ice for Europe; price is not value so beware investor sentiment; falling unemployment is not rising employment so watch the participation rate; and a hiccup is not a correction so keep an eye on an exit…
In reviewing the EIA weekly petroleum report, the oil imports figure came in at 6.889 (Million Barrels per Day) for the week ending 01/10/14. This number compared to a year ago 8.030 (Million Barrels per Day) puts a nice cap on the downtrend which really started gaining steam in 2010 onward.
The room’s getting crowded, the party’s been going on a while but more people could arrive. Just beware fair weather friends and a sign it could be time to think about leaving…
Whilst as traders and people, we all tend to make New Year resolutions. The market however seems set to continue in the same vein as in 2013, with the primary focus remaining the constant debate of tapering, and as I have said before, what I call ‘tweaking’.
ETF Outlook for Thursday, January 9, 2014.
For gold bugs, 2013 was certainly a year to forget with the precious metal continuing its remorseless journey lower, a journey punctuated with minor rallies which promised much, but delivered little. To say it was a gloomy end to the year would an understatement.
Crude oil continued its bearish tone once again last week, closing the oil trading session on Friday at $94.61 per barrel for the December futures contract. With the fundamental picture now calming, the technical element is taking center stage, and in the last few weeks crude oil has breached several key levels, as outlined in previous posts.
As we begin another the first full trading week of November traders are likely to maintain their focus on U.S. economic data reports.
