Morning Outlook – November 1st
U.S. futures are riding yesterday’s momentum of positive U.S. economic data refueling speculation the Federal Reserve may opt to taper its $85 billion stimulus program sooner rather than later.
U.S. futures are riding yesterday’s momentum of positive U.S. economic data refueling speculation the Federal Reserve may opt to taper its $85 billion stimulus program sooner rather than later.
The last two weeks have been positive ones, and not just for equities, as gold bugs finally found something to celebrate with a return of some much needed bullish momentum.
An interesting phase of price action for two of the most precious commodities over the last few days, with both gold and oil, testing key tipping points on the daily chart.
The WTI September crude oil futures contract is now building into an interesting phase of price action, and in many ways is mirroring a similar period between May and July 2013, where the commodity oscillated between $92 per barrel to the downside and $98 per barrel to the upside, before finally breaking out.
With commodities in general taking a hammering in the markets at the moment, neither silver or gold have escaped. In the last two days, the dramatic falls in silver, have also been reflected in gold futures, with the June contract trading lower once again overnight on Globex as we test the $1540 per ounce level.
What an end to the month! If traders in soft commodities were expecting a quiet end to the first quarter of 2013, there was a real sting in the tail, with the latest USDA report released on the 28th March, sending corn futures tumbling, and spilling over into oats and the soybean market. And the catalyst for these dramatic falls?
Morning Coffee Break – Tuesday April 2 April what is thought of being a strong month historically began the month and second quarter at a slow snail pace. The Dow and the bulls have look to April as the best month of the year as far back as 1950 with an average 2.7% gain for the month.
Gold continued to trade in a narrow range once again yesterday, with the April gold futures contract closing marginally lower and ending the gold trading session with a narrow spread down candle, closing just below the psychological $1600 per ounce level at $1594.80 per ounce.
With strong words to support the Euro, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, quelled fears over the future of the Eurozone. However, the bailout negotiations in Cyprus revealed cracks in this ‘floor’ supporting the region and markets. A ‘Banking Union’ has been undermined, imbalances within the region magnified and individual systematic risk returned.
May crude oil futures continued to climb higher once again in yesterday’s trading session, closing at $96.51 per barrel, with a narrow spread up candle with wicks to both top and bottom on the daily chart.
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