Morning Outlook – November 1st
U.S. futures are riding yesterday’s momentum of positive U.S. economic data refueling speculation the Federal Reserve may opt to taper its $85 billion stimulus program sooner rather than later.
U.S. futures are riding yesterday’s momentum of positive U.S. economic data refueling speculation the Federal Reserve may opt to taper its $85 billion stimulus program sooner rather than later.
The last two weeks have been positive ones, and not just for equities, as gold bugs finally found something to celebrate with a return of some much needed bullish momentum.
An interesting phase of price action for two of the most precious commodities over the last few days, with both gold and oil, testing key tipping points on the daily chart.
This week was always going to be a tricky one for both traders and investors, with the market’s primary focus being the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The meeting at which the FED is likely to signal the beginning of the end of its bond buying program. Well, that’s the theory anyway, but given the less that stellar NFP data, this is far from certain.
The Goldman Sachs (GS, quote) Hedge Fund Report was released this morning providing readers a significant amount of hedge fund data including the fund’s top holding based on their 13F filings from the second quarter.
With the long summer days now coming to an end, it’s time to re-visit that perennial gauge of market risk, the VIX for a view of whether the equity market is indeed over bought, and likely to reverse dramatically.
The sideways stock market that has been with us since late July doesn’t appear to want to change. Equities are somewhat in a dead market at this time.
The WTI September crude oil futures contract is now building into an interesting phase of price action, and in many ways is mirroring a similar period between May and July 2013, where the commodity oscillated between $92 per barrel to the downside and $98 per barrel to the upside, before finally breaking out.
The Bank of Japan took control of it’s currency in grand style last week, having duly selected the largest hypodermic they could find, filled it with steroids, and then injected a syringe full directly into the artery of the dollar yen.
For longer term traders in YM futures, the index in April has continued the pattern of trading that we saw during the second half of March, with the Emini contract trading in a tight range, closing the week following the NFP data, at 14,484, and back in this area once again.