Natural Gas Outlook

Natural Gas traded lower, settling $3.233 down $0.118 (3.9%). The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.05, J13/V13 $0.02 weaker, V13/F13 out $0.01. Hub cash was firmer, ~$0.03 back this morning, Z-6 fell to $9.80 from $16.88 Monday. The 12z was mostly in line with overnight models (slightly warmer Northeast and cooler Central U.S.) during the 6-10 day. The 11-15 was cooler than overnight models across the Eastern and Central U.S. Thursday we anticipate a withdrawal from storage ~145 Bcf, bullish vs last year’s 76 Bcf withdrawal and 5-yr average 113 Bcf withdrawal. This week will tighten the YoY and 5-yr surplus to ~25 Bcf and 350 Bcf.

Vol was very little changed today, down a touch in the front. Technically we are bearish, $3.05 should be tested again (V/X roll).  Resistance is found at $3.29, $3.45, $3.56. On the downside we see support at $3.17, $3.05.

Editor’s Note: Natural Gas Commentary readers who are equity investors/traders only can gain access to the Natural Gas space through the following exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Natural Gas

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG, quote)

United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL, quote)

First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG, quote)

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