The economic calendar is taking a breather today but will return with bang tomorrow. Market participants are looking forward to two major central meetings as the Bank of Japan and especially the European Central Bank take centre stage.
Over the past week and a half, market participants have been forced to reduce their Bank of England rate hike expectations due to the recent soft patch in UK economic data.
Economic data out of the UK released in the last couple of days has been pound-positive, yet the GBPUSD is still holding below the 1.30 handle. But for how long? Given that the positively-correlating EURUSD pair has already broken well above its own corresponding psychological hurdle at 1.10 after a sharp rally, the cable could be playing catch up.
At the start of a week full of US earnings, important economic data and a couple of central bank meetings, risk is somewhat off the menu. Equities, copper and, to a lesser degree, oil prices were all trading lower at the time of this writing.
News that the UK manufacturing activity in September hit its highest level since June 2014 has provided a welcome relief for sterling.
EURGBP is still moving sideways on its 1-hour forex chart, bouncing off support at the .7260 area and finding resistance at .7360. Price is on its way up to test the top of the range once more while stochastic is moving down from the overbought zone, suggesting that the resistance might hold.
EURGBP is still on a downtrend but the pair is currently testing the top of the descending channel visible on its 4-hour time frame. If resistance around the top of the channel or .7200 holds, the pair could move back to the bottom at .7000 or lower.
The EUR/GBP continued to struggle at the 0.8750 area once again yesterday, ending the trading session with a doji candle, sending a clear signal of indecision at this level, which has been duly validated in this morning’s early trading session, with the pair retreating lower, and moving back below the 0.8700 region at the time of writing.
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