Whenever I put the proverbial pen to paper and start to write about gold, I can already hear the chorus of dissenting voices from those traders and investors who only view their beloved metal as bullish, and can never accept the reality of what is actually happening on the chart.
Despite being bearish on gold (GLD, quote) for so long, and sounding to many gold (IAU, quote) traders and investors like a old recording stuck in a groove,
For gold investors and gold bugs, the current malaise in the price of gold is both relentless and remorseless with each minor rally promptly engulfed by a wave of heavy selling. As someone wrote a few weeks ago, gold bugs consider the market to be functioning correctly when the price of gold is rising, and incorrectly when the market is falling.
Panic – what panic. Not according to the price of gold and whilst other markets have seen extreme volatility with equities plunging, currency pairs opening gapped down, and the VIX moving violently, gold has continued to remain calm and serene throughout, with hardly a murmur to reflect the turmoil around.
Many traders immediately think of precious metals like gold (GLD, quote)when hedging inflation.
In the past investors were limited in choices between paper assets like stocks , bonds and trust deeds, and physical assets. Physical assets were all forms of commodities (DBC, quote) , real estate, precious metals, agricultural, energies etc , along of course their labor.
Regular readers of my market analysis will know that I have been bearish on gold for some time, and despite the recent bullish trend which has seen gold move from the lows of $1170 per ounce to the high of late January at $1310 per ounce, have remained so.
As we come to the end of 2014 and look forward to 2015, for those trading and investing in gold the perspectives and conclusions will no doubt be very different and entirely dependent on whether you are a longer term investor in the precious metal, or a short term speculator.
To say the last few days have been a roller coaster ride for commodities would be an understatement, with both oil and gold providing some sensational trading opportunities, but for very different reasons. For gold, it was the Swiss referendum over the weekend, and for oil, it was the OPEC meeting in Vienna.
The price action for gold throughout much of November could best be described as chaotic, with volatile days of price action subsequently followed by periods of relative inactivity, only to be replaced with extreme and unpredictable swings intraday. And perhaps the place to start with any analysis for the precious metal is on the weekly chart, for a more considered view of the price action.
