And so the bullish trade returns. The up-down-up-down pattern that has developed over the past week continued yesterday in WTI and cast a positive light on an otherwise neutral-appearing chart. Brent appears similar, but couldn’t get much of a rally going yesterday.
Oil prices may hold within a sideways trading direction this week, as the short-term rally contends with a building bearish divergence on the daily stochastics oscillator.
Oil prices could trade in a mixed direction this week, with a small pullback toward $91.50 possible in WTI. Pressure may be offered by a developing bearish divergence on the stochastics oscillator in both WTI and Brent…
The oil market finally “broke out” from its week-long consolidation range yesterday, but the breakout was anything but impressive. WTI settled in the middle of the day’s trading range while Brent ended near the day’s low. While those settlements provide little in the way of positive forward guidance, other signs are more bullish. Support will be offered from the growing appearance that economic data in Asia and Europe are improving, fresh five-year highs in the S&P 500 yesterday, and weakness in the dollar
It was deja vu all over again for the oil markets yesterday, as both WTI and Brent made small losses within inside-day trading ranges. The incremental information in yesterday’s session basically included pressure from weak oil demand and increasing worries about the upcoming German local elections, while support came from increased speculation about accommodative monetary policies in Japan and China
WTI is showing difficulty in trading above the $94.00/bbl price level, while Brent is doing the same near $113.00/bbl. The oil markets may continue to remain range-bound in the near-term, as influencing factors are somewhat mixed. The upside will focus on improving economic data, buying by managed money accounts, and fresh refinery issues with Motiva
The oil market may remain in a mixed trend in the near-term as it has in the last three sessions, with underlying factors somewhat balanced. Recent support has been given by improved signs of economic growth, COT data, the grounding of Shell’s oil rig in Alaska, and the ramp-up of the expanded Seaway pipeline this week. Environmental groups have already called on the president to suspend drilling permits in the Arctic
Natural Gas traded higher, settling $3.287 up $0.089 2.7%. The curve was firmer, 13/16 $0.03 tighter (J13/F14 $0.02 better). Hub cash was ~$0.03 back this morning, Z-6 fell to $1.00 to $4.80.
The short-term trend of the energy markets has been on the upside for nearly a month now, but prices are approaching levels that have traditionally caused problems for rallies. The weekly chart below suggests that WTI may be able reach the falling trendline near $101/bbl without creating any appearance of excess, however, demand would then become a concern as rationing will eventually return
Our view of the oil markets is generally unchanged today from the outlook we made yesterday. Prices could continue higher over the next week or so, but we remain cautious about the ability of the rally being maintained.
