Oil markets may continue their sideways trend this week, as the trade continues to face pressure from a lack of progress on the fiscal cliff. Background pressure will remain in effect from growing domestic oil production, elevated oil inventories, and last week’s hold at the 50-day moving averages in Brent and WTI.
Oil prices rallied nicely in yesterday’s trade but once again had trouble getting above the 50-day moving averages in WTI and Brent. Today’s trade could witness a similar disposition, as the general reaction by risk markets yesterday to “bullish” news from the Fed was to finish either lower on the day (as equities did) or significantly below the day’s highs (as energies and precious metals did).
The market appears as though it will trade to the downside in the near-term thanks to Monday’s break of key channel support and due to the inability to maintain rallies. Pressure may also come from a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks, the potential that OPEC leaves production unchanged at today’s meeting, building levels of U.S. gasoline stocks, and high levels of U.S. oil production.
Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may trade lower in the near-term, as Monday’s action failed to respond to moderately favorable developments. There was support for yesterday’s trade given by the bottom of a rising channel pattern at $86.20 and from a recovery in economic data from China and Germany. However, an uninspiring trade in the stock market and a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks added on to other
This week’s trade in energies could see a mixed trend overall, but selling rallies may still be the most attractive trade at the moment. WTI will find key resistance at the 50-day moving average at $88.20 while strong support will be at the bottom of a bullish flag pattern at $86.20. A busy week is in store, as the weekend’s Chinese economic and trade data will be digested on Monday.
The oil market is a tough call today and could potentially rebound amid channel line support and today’s non-farm payroll report. The channel offers support at $86.10/bbl in WTI, while we think that the payroll report could be spun favorably even if it misses estimates due to superstorm Sandy.
EURUSD breaks below the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 1.3125 and the uptrend from 1.2661 has completed. The pair is now in downtrend from 1.3125, further decline could be expected and next target would be at 1.2850-1.2900 area. Key resistance is at 1.3125, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.3500.
Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production.
EURUSD may be forming a cycle top at 1.3125 on 4-hour chart. Range trading between 1.3000 and 1.3125 would likely be seen in a couple of days. Support is now located at the lower line of the price channel, as long as the channel support holds, the fall from 1.3125 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.2661, one more rise towards 1.3500 is still possible after consolidation, only a clear break below the channel support could signal completion of the uptrend.
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