In previous months, these pages have warned of slowing global growth and cited crude as the leading indicator. Crude plummeted nearly 18% in May compared with just a little over a 6% decline in the S&P 500. Reitterating the stance that crude is the leader (the ‘tell’ if you will) in the next wave of develeveraging, equities probably have much more downside in the coming months.
Any way you cut it, the dollar’s recent performance is impressive. So far this month, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has climbed 1.9 percent to its highest weekly close since the middle of December. Looking at currency’s performance in specific corners of the market, we find the EURUSD is below 1.3000, AUDUSD is at its lowest level this year and the greenback has even been able to muscle gold (another safe haven) into a potentially critical reversal of a trend that goes back over three years.
THE TAKEAWAY: Manufacturing PMIs much weaker than expected -> Core countries hit by slowing demand from the European south -> Euro falls against US Dollar Weak readings from the European manufacturing sector sparked a bout of Euro weakness today. The weighty German manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 46.2 versus the expected 46.3. Beleaguered Italy was hit hardest, with the gauge coming in at 43.8 versus the expected 47.1.
THE TAKEAWAY: German unemployment rises by 19K, despite expectations for 10K fall -> positive labor market trend was said to have been outweighed by slowdown of economic momentum -> Euro drops as weak PMI manufacturing also comes in
Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT for DailyFX Last week’s hold above the 4/4 low suggests that gold has been forming a bullish base since mid-March. Exceeding the April high would put bulls in control towards the trendline above 1700 (that line extends off of the September 2011 and February 2012 highs).
240 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT The multi month USDCAD range has been resolved to the downside therefore my bias is to the downside. Today’s advance off of GDP offers an opportunity to align with the larger downtrend. Resistance extends to 9925 and risk on shorts should be above 9980. Bottom Line (next 5 days) – sideways/lower?
The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) is set to bounce off of recent range lows against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and other major counterparts as forex market volatility suggests range trading will be the top strategy in the week ahead. DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
Index Last High Low Daily Change (%) Daily Range (% of ATR) DJ-FXCM Dollar Index 9830.8 9844.1 9816.27 0.07 55.72% The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.07 percent higher from the open after being oversold on Friday, and the greenback should continue to retrace the decline from earlier this month as we expect the Federal Reserve to conclude its easing cycle this year. However, the technical outlook
This morning saw a flurry of economic data pushing the U.S. markets around ahead of the Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll
Talking Points Euro: Spain Faces Double-Dip Recession, Triangle Continues To Take Shape British Pound: Clears 23.6% Fib, RSI Bouncing Around 70 Euro: Spain Faces Double-Dip Recession, Descending Triangle Continues To Take Shape
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