Of the currencies likely to be in focus this week, I really did not expect the week to start with a further move lower for the Loonie (and the Canadian economy) which have both been badly affected by falling oil prices (USO, quote) .
With many of the major trading centres closed yesterday for public holidays, and with little in the way of meaningful fundamental news to drive price action, trading volumes in currency futures remained thin, with the Aussie dollar, the British Pound, the Canadian dollar and the Euro, all consolidating further following the volatile price action of last week.
Following on from my recent posts about the bearish nature of the USDCAD and the medium term prospects for the Loonie, today’s advance GDP release has helped to drive the Canadian lower once again, accelerating its downwards progress and adding to yesterday’s wide spread down candle.
AUDCAD is currently testing a falling trend line on its 1-hour time frame, as it has pulled up after reaching the 1.0150 minor psychological support.
Today the economic calendar is jammed packed with key market moving data, that will have traders watching closely.
Most of the major currency pairs continue to show significant correlations with the MSCI World Stock Index, suggesting that broad-based risk appetite trends remain dominant as drivers of price action. This puts thematic macro-level concerns – specifically, the durability of the US recovery and its ability to offset headwinds from Europe and China facing global growth – squarely at the forefront. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet, with headline event risk clustered at the end of the week as PPI and UofM Consumer Confidence readings cross the wires on Friday. This puts the onus on evaluating the extent of downward pressure.
The ongoing political turmoil in Europe continues to shake the markets, with the inability for Greece to form a government now fueling speculation that the country might soon exit the Eurozone. Although an exit by Greece would have only a minimal impact on the broader economy, given the country’s size, fears of contagion seem to be the bigger problem right now, as investors start to price in the impact this will have on larger economies like Spain and Italy.
Euro: French, Greek Elections Raises Risk For Breakup – 1.3000 Crucial British Pound: Correction In Focus, BoE To Discuss Exit Strategy Euro: French, Greek Elections Raises Risk For Breakup – 1.3000 Crucial The Euro tumbled to a fresh monthly low of 1.2954 as French President Francois Hollande overtook Nicolas Sarkozy as the president of France, while the two main parties in Greece failed to obtain a joint majority, and the
THE TAKEAWAY: PPI numbers come in lower than expected -> high energy prices continue to affect producers -> Euro trades within tight range Producer price inflation in the 17-nation Eurozone increased less than expected in March, representing the sixth consecutive monthly drop in the gauge. The month-on-month number came in at 0.6% vs. the 0.5% predicted by economists, while the yearly number was 3.3% versus the expected 3.4%. The numbers
The NZDUSD (Kiwi Dollar) currency pair is one riddled with uncertainty. It has spent the better part of 2012 heading higher from its January low at .7708. After moving as much as 677 pips to our standing high at .8385, the pair has faltered failing to advance further to challenge the pairs all time high at .8841.
You must be logged in to post a comment.