It is going to be a big week for the markets this one, especially towards the end of it. Among other things, we will have the UK’s general elections, the ECB’s latest policy decision and former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony all to look forward to on Thursday.
Financial markets opened in a bit of a panic mode overnight in the wake of Trump’s failure to repeal Obamacare. Stock index futures slumped while the dollar index fell to its lowest since mid-November as the yen and euro both gapped higher. The dollar’s losses steepened after the London open as the GBP/USD climbed to near 1.26 handle and EUR/USD neared 1.0900. European stock indices bounced off their lows slightly.
In recent days we have seen the dollar’s bullish trend gain momentum against the G10 currencies. Investors appear to be expanding their bullish bets on the greenback amid rising expectations that Donald Trump’s reputation will prevent him to become the next US president.
The dollar’s laborious consolidative days seem to be numbered from both the technical and fundamental points of view.
The dollar staged a broad-based rally on Thursday to make back some of the losses it had suffered earlier in the week which had been on the back of a poor ISM services PMI reading and last week’s disappointing jobs report.
The GBPUSD ended higher last week on the back of surprisingly stronger-than-expected UK economic data and as the dollar eased along with expectations about an imminent rate hike in the US.
This week saw data from the UK surprise positively and the severally-oversold pound bounced back sharply, while the dollar fell across the board as the Fed watered down rate hike expectations in the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting and after some weakness in US data was observed, causing the EUR/USD to climb to its best level since 24 June.
If, like me you have had to take a break from trading and the markets, it can sometimes be difficult to pick up the threads and re-orientate yourself to the emotional state of the market. And perhaps the best place to start is with the major indices, in particular the VIX, the Dollar Index and the NASDAQ.
This week was always going to be a tricky one for both traders and investors, with the market’s primary focus being the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The meeting at which the FED is likely to signal the beginning of the end of its bond buying program. Well, that’s the theory anyway, but given the less that stellar NFP data, this is far from certain.
Gold continued to trade in a narrow range once again yesterday, with the April gold futures contract closing marginally lower and ending the gold trading session with a narrow spread down candle, closing just below the psychological $1600 per ounce level at $1594.80 per ounce.
