Turmoil in Emerging Markets hit investor confidence in January and, after a stellar February, the crisis in the Ukraine could lead to profit taking this month. Indeed, volatility spiked to a similar level and the S&P came off its all-time-high on Friday as fears started to set in.
‘Wind down’ is not withdrawal but watch negative news flow in the US; treading water is not growth so keep the champagne on ice for Europe; price is not value so beware investor sentiment; falling unemployment is not rising employment so watch the participation rate; and a hiccup is not a correction so keep an eye on an exit…
If equity bears are having a tough time at present, euro bears have had a torrid time over the last few years, with each move lower acclaimed as the end of the single currency, which then promptly rises and continues to survive.
With strong words to support the Euro, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, quelled fears over the future of the Eurozone. However, the bailout negotiations in Cyprus revealed cracks in this ‘floor’ supporting the region and markets. A ‘Banking Union’ has been undermined, imbalances within the region magnified and individual systematic risk returned.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Morning Coffee Break – History repeated itself as the Dow Jones dropped for the 15th Monday out of 16th weeks. U.S. futures are suggesting positive opening in early electronic trading with the Dow Jones fair value at 18.08, S&P 500 fair value 1.66 and the NASDAQ’s fair value coming in at 4.12.
Breaking News – Advanced Micro Devices warns prior to earnings announcement.
The greenback is markedly weaker at the close of North American trade with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) off by 0.67% on the session after moving a full 135% of its daily average true range. The losses come on the back of a stellar performance in equity markets with a rebound in risk appetite fueling a broad-based rally in stocks amid speculation that the ECB will
Gold was sharply higher at the close of trade this week with the precious metal surging 3.87% to close at $1622.75 in New York. The rally marks the largest single week advance since the week ending January 27th when prices soared by more than 4.4% as it approached the $1740 level
After Greek leaders announced that they failed to form a government, guaranteeing at least one more round of elections, higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets entered a free fall. The EURUSD fell to its lowest level since January 17 overnight while the AUDUSD dropped to its lowest level since December 15. Similarly, global equity markets have sold off sharply in the aftermath, with Asian shares being hit the hardest.
Any way you cut it, the dollar’s recent performance is impressive. So far this month, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has climbed 1.9 percent to its highest weekly close since the middle of December. Looking at currency’s performance in specific corners of the market, we find the EURUSD is below 1.3000, AUDUSD is at its lowest level this year and the greenback has even been able to muscle gold (another safe haven) into a potentially critical reversal of a trend that goes back over three years.
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