Welcome to Monday’s Morning Coffee Break – Today’s U.S. session is the session of first – first day of new week, first day of new month and first day of a new quarter. U.S. markets finished off the September and the 3rd quarter in the green albeit the bulls loss some steam the final week of trading.
Welcome to today’s Morning Coffee Break – traders had a case of Deja vu yesterday as the U.S. markets traded similar to last week ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and U.S Federal Reserve meetings. U.S. futures are indicating a positive opening today with the Dow Jones fair value of 30.36, S&P 500 fair value of 2.33 and the NASDAQ’s fair value currently at 5.37.
Asian markets begin the week off with a big bang Monday morning – Sunday evening in the U.S after the European Finance Ministers approved to provide Spain euros for a banking bailout.
The Euro bounced sharply off of multi-year lows in a week of impressive recovery for the US S&P 500 and broader financial markets.
After yesterday’s massive rally – in fact the biggest rally since December by the Australian Dollar and the Dow Jones Industrial Average since December 20, 2011 – it would appear that all global issues have been resolved.
Futures are suggesting the markets could build on yesterday’s bounce. Futures are up ahead of the open with S&P fair value at +13.00 and NASDAQ fair value at +21.80.
European investors’ optimism for the Eurozone has reached a 3-year low according to a Sentix survey. The Sentix investor confidence for June came in at -28.9, the lowest score since May 2009, but still better than analysts’ expectations for a -30.0 survey result. Back in March of this year, the survey reached a six month high at -8.2, before the survey results declined for the next four straight months.
Technical screens found another ETF that has confirmed a weekly triangle suggesting continuation of the current bearish trend. The pattern is confirmed with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) pushing below the trendline at the same time the moving average of the RSI is moving lower.
After Greek leaders announced that they failed to form a government, guaranteeing at least one more round of elections, higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets entered a free fall. The EURUSD fell to its lowest level since January 17 overnight while the AUDUSD dropped to its lowest level since December 15. Similarly, global equity markets have sold off sharply in the aftermath, with Asian shares being hit the hardest.
Most of the major currency pairs continue to show significant correlations with the MSCI World Stock Index, suggesting that broad-based risk appetite trends remain dominant as drivers of price action. This puts thematic macro-level concerns – specifically, the durability of the US recovery and its ability to offset headwinds from Europe and China facing global growth – squarely at the forefront. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet, with headline event risk clustered at the end of the week as PPI and UofM Consumer Confidence readings cross the wires on Friday. This puts the onus on evaluating the extent of downward pressure.
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