The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday announced its board decision to amend the rounding methodology for determining currency accounts in the Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket, in order to make technical preparations for the inclusion of the Chinese currency, Renminbi, in the SDR basket.
Last week’s bearish engulfing candle for gold on the weekly chart appears to have had some follow through at the start of the new trading week, as the precious metal fell victim to a renewal of risk appetite as most global equity markets made fresh monthly highs, and the S&P and DOW soaring into new high ground.
EURGBP is still on a downtrend but the pair is currently testing the top of the descending channel visible on its 4-hour time frame. If resistance around the top of the channel or .7200 holds, the pair could move back to the bottom at .7000 or lower.
The EURUSD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Wednesday, but then turned back around to test support below.
U.S. equity futures turned sharply lower over the crisis in Greece. Most recent last night the IMF discontinues negations with the Greek government and walked away from the table.
Most of the major currency pairs continue to show significant correlations with the MSCI World Stock Index, suggesting that broad-based risk appetite trends remain dominant as drivers of price action. This puts thematic macro-level concerns – specifically, the durability of the US recovery and its ability to offset headwinds from Europe and China facing global growth – squarely at the forefront. The US economic calendar is relatively quiet, with headline event risk clustered at the end of the week as PPI and UofM Consumer Confidence readings cross the wires on Friday. This puts the onus on evaluating the extent of downward pressure.
The ongoing political turmoil in Europe continues to shake the markets, with the inability for Greece to form a government now fueling speculation that the country might soon exit the Eurozone. Although an exit by Greece would have only a minimal impact on the broader economy, given the country’s size, fears of contagion seem to be the bigger problem right now, as investors start to price in the impact this will have on larger economies like Spain and Italy.
Euro: French, Greek Elections Raises Risk For Breakup – 1.3000 Crucial British Pound: Correction In Focus, BoE To Discuss Exit Strategy Euro: French, Greek Elections Raises Risk For Breakup – 1.3000 Crucial The Euro tumbled to a fresh monthly low of 1.2954 as French President Francois Hollande overtook Nicolas Sarkozy as the president of France, while the two main parties in Greece failed to obtain a joint majority, and the
– Market optimism fades and suggests more USD strength – Widespread calls for a break lower in Eur/Usd – Key economic data and political risk ahead – Focus for now on monthly US employment data Although we have seen no clear breakouts in most of the major currencies, and although the Euro still remains locked in a very well defined 1.3000-1.3500 consolidation (that has defined trade for much of 2012),
THE TAKEAWAY: PPI numbers come in lower than expected -> high energy prices continue to affect producers -> Euro trades within tight range Producer price inflation in the 17-nation Eurozone increased less than expected in March, representing the sixth consecutive monthly drop in the gauge. The month-on-month number came in at 0.6% vs. the 0.5% predicted by economists, while the yearly number was 3.3% versus the expected 3.4%. The numbers
