Last week was an interesting one for oil traders (USO, quote) and speculators, as crude oil continued to move lower from Monday to Thursday, before bouncing strongly on Friday and closing in positive territory for the day, with a deep wicked candle on the daily chart and associated with high volume.
Brent crude (BNO, quote) oil traded steadily at $102.10 at 8:10 GMT as the global supply glut weighed on prices.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) was steady just below $114 as worries about a supply interruption in Iraq faded. The commodity traded at $113.78 at 8:50 GMT as investors evaluated whether or not the Middle Eastern nation’s ongoing conflict would escalate further and tighten global supplies.
In any escalation of political tension oil and gold are the two key commodities to watch. For oil the breakout and surge higher was largely driven by events in Iraq coupled with supply issues at Cushing, both of which combined to help power the WTI crude oil (USO, quote) contract up to the $107 per barrel price point as evidenced by last Thursday’s wide spread up candle.
Whilst the ongoing conflicts in both the Ukraine and Iraq are beginning to impact world markets, yesterday’s price action was less severe than expected. In other words, the price action was more of a pause than a major sell off.
Easing geopolitical tension coupled with worrisome economic figures pushed Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) to a near five month low on Tuesday.
Oil prices have held within a roughly $2.50/bbl trading range in the past seven days since the initial post-election $4.27/bbl washout on Nov 7th. While the Israel/Gaza conflict has been supportive for the market, it has only been a factor in the last two days of last week.
This week’s trade in the oil market may witness bottoming action take place, as the U.S. election begins to move to center stage. There may also be an exit from the markets by hedge funds that close their books on Oct 31st, but the impact they actually exert may be somewhat limited in the near-term as their long positioning has already been reduced.
