The overnight market have once again shown some signs of life in the soy-complex as this market seems to be the only market that has global interest. The beans as of 8CST are trading +6-9, meal gained $1.50-2, oil increased by 25-30 points, corn is virtually unchanged…again and wheat is up 2-3.
I am going to present the wire in a little different slant today, as I mentioned last week we are going to try some new approaches of doing things as we head into the New Year and since markets are as slow as they are I thought we would try a few new things.
The overnight trade is starting the month of December with renewed hopes that December of 2012 will give a Christmas present like the December of 2011. The beans are already +20, meal has gained $5, oil has posted gains of 70 points, corn is pushing 10 higher and wheat is also +10-12.
A clarion is a medieval trumpet that had clear, shrill tones. Trumpets were often uses to get people’s attention when making announcements. We are using “clarion” in the context of making announcements, as well as being thought-provoking when sharing our information and opinions with those who are interested in new investment ideas. Topic: Natural Gas For quite a while, natural gas performed so badly, with the price beaten down
Not sure if it’s the fact that Obama won the debate last night or the fact that earnings continue to fall below expectations but it appears that the market is quickly moving back to a risk off environment moving back to capital preservation mode.
The overnight markets once again are attempting to rebound after yet another disappointing day yesterday. The beans are marginally higher, meal is down in the nearby contracts and higher marginally in the deferred, oil has gained 25-30 points, corn is up 2-3 while wheat has gained 3-4. The bottom line is that the overall market is in a quagmire right now and there is not much influential news.
The S&P is up over 14% on the year, $ follows $ and the world loves equities over nearly everything else, is it any surprise to see a surge in equities yesterday while grains get punished and it happened to be the 1st day of the new quarter?
The overnight session gives a bit for everyone as the market continues to digest the past USDA report. The corn market is the market back on the front page as supplies remain tight. The beans are also tight but not as tight as many had assumed and wheat is also shrinking on the supply side. The bottom line is that the USDA once again was able to absorb some early harvest into the old crop figures and as long as there is early harvest this pattern seems to work. The question is what do they do when there isn’t an early harvest? This is a debate for another time as it doesn’t matter today.
What a difference a month makes, just 30 days ago the bean and corn markets were pushing near all-time highs with thoughts of another 10% surge, there wasn’t many anticipating that the 10% move would be lower. The seasonal tendency all points towards September being a dismal month to be long grains, but this year was different…right? Apparently not. So what does the market do from here?
The overnight markets have attempted once again to recover from some of the punches it has taken in the gut over the past few weeks. It’s amazing to look back at seasonal trades and think “why didn’t I respond to what history has taught me”? One of the biggest seasonal trades in grains is to sell the market through September, this has been no different yet on September 1st the perception was that this year is different. Well if we look back at history again there is typically a quick 50% retracement of the September losses during the first few weeks of October.
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