The recent rally for soft commodities appears to have stalled once again last week, as improving weather conditions across the US mid West allowed harvesting to get back on track with the forecast for a record crop now back in focus.
Brent crude (BNO, quote) oil traded steadily at $102.10 at 8:10 GMT as the global supply glut weighed on prices.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) was steady on Wednesday morning after briefly rising overnight, but waning demand in both China (FXI, quote) and Europe (FEZ, quote) coupled with declining U.S. crude imports kept a lid on gains.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) was steady above $107 as investors kept an eye on global instabilities, but relaxed their worries about a supply interruptions as the market appears to have a glut of crude.
Brent crude oil (BNO, quote) suffered its largest loss in almost a month, bringing it down near $108.
Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.418 up $0.06 1.8%. The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.08 (16-20 up btwn $0.08-$0.13). Hub cash was firmer, ~$0.08 back this morning, Z-6 up $0.15 to $3.55. The 12z was warmer Midwest and South and much cooler West Coast/Plains during the 6-10 day.
Natural Gas traded lower settling $3.666, down $0.034 (0.9%). The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.03. Hub cash was weaker, ~$0.20 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.40 to $3.90 as temps are running 10-15 above normal in major Northeast/Midwestern cities through Monday.
Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.535 up $0.083 2.6%. The curve was firmer, 13/16 $0.02 better. Hub cash was stronger, ~$0.12 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.10 to $3.50. The 12z was in line w/ overnight models, showing mostly cooler temps Eastern U.S. during the 6-10 day (Northern Plains came in slightly warmer).
Oil prices may continue their short-term correction over the next few days, with support in WTI offered between $81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs have exited the market. A focus will be on the FOMC announcement today, but little change in policy is expected after the last meeting’s implementation of QE3.
Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.47, up $0.033 0.9%. The curve was mostly firmer (outside of X/F $0.027 weaker, UNG concludes tomorrow), J13/F14 $0.017 firmer, 14/16 little changed. J13/F14 -$0.528 approaching highs ~$-0.52 (charts/seasonality below). Hub cash was ~$0.19 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.05 to $3.40.
