Whilst everyone’s attention on Friday was focused on the monthly circus which is the NFP, the VIX on the other hand slipped quietly and almost unnoticed below the 11.00 price point on the daily chart, to close the week at 10.73, its lowest level for many years.
In my post of 28th May I suggested that the Canadian Dollar was approaching a key turning point as it was heavily overbought as displayed on our daily currency strength indicator on the left. Since then, the currency has indeed been selling off and for evidence of this we need to look no further than the CAD/USD June futures where this price action is clearly reflected.
As equity markets continue to ‘climb the wall of worry’ and with so many market commentators predicting the imminent collapse of the current bull run, this may be a good time to take a more dispassionate view based on the two leading technical indicators traders and investors have, namely volume and price.
Oil appears to have run out out of steam once again, following the bullish rally during May, with $104 per barrel once again proving to be a major stumbling block, and as shown on the daily chart with the yellow dotted line.
For gold bugs, 2014 promised so much following its long decline in 2013, which saw the precious metal lose over $500 per ounce. The first quarter of 2014 looked promising with gold recovering $300 per ounce and climbing back to test the $1,400 per ounce level – heady days.
If, like me you have had to take a break from trading and the markets, it can sometimes be difficult to pick up the threads and re-orientate yourself to the emotional state of the market. And perhaps the best place to start is with the major indices, in particular the VIX, the Dollar Index and the NASDAQ.
With end of month approaching and national holidays across most of Europe tomorrow (Ascension Day), this may a good time to look at alternative currencies which are reaching extreme overbought
Following continued bullish momentum for many of the major currency pairs, these are now approaching key technical levels, which if breached could prove to be the tipping points for some sustained and longer term trends to develop.
If any further evidence were needed of the bearish sentiment towards oil, yesterday’s price action confirmed this weakness once more, as the commodity attempted to rise in early trading, before selling off sharply later in the oil trading session, with the June WTI futures contract closing at 101.28 per barrel, having hit an intra day high of $102.20 per barrel.
Whilst commodities such as nickel and coffee have been offering longer term investors excellent returns this year, and with soybeans set to join the party with some good rollover returns, crude oil has promised much but delivered little.
