The market appears as though it will trade to the downside in the near-term thanks to Monday’s break of key channel support and due to the inability to maintain rallies. Pressure may also come from a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks, the potential that OPEC leaves production unchanged at today’s meeting, building levels of U.S. gasoline stocks, and high levels of U.S. oil production.
Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may trade lower in the near-term, as Monday’s action failed to respond to moderately favorable developments. There was support for yesterday’s trade given by the bottom of a rising channel pattern at $86.20 and from a recovery in economic data from China and Germany. However, an uninspiring trade in the stock market and a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks added on to other
The overnight markets are all over the place, most recently collapsing from 7-8CST with beans trading down more than double digits. The meal has quickly lost $3-4, oil remains 20-30 points lower, corn is melting trading down 5-6 and wheat has drifted lower trading down 4-5 cents.
This week’s trade in energies could see a mixed trend overall, but selling rallies may still be the most attractive trade at the moment. WTI will find key resistance at the 50-day moving average at $88.20 while strong support will be at the bottom of a bullish flag pattern at $86.20. A busy week is in store, as the weekend’s Chinese economic and trade data will be digested on Monday.
Current market conditions – The Dow Jones (DIA, quote) trading up by 0.21% to 13101.07, S&P 500 (SPY, quote) is trading lower by 0.10% to 1421.51 and the NASDAQ (QQQ, quote) is trading down by 0.65% to 2969.88
Breaking News – Non-Farm Payroll Report
The oil market is a tough call today and could potentially rebound amid channel line support and today’s non-farm payroll report. The channel offers support at $86.10/bbl in WTI, while we think that the payroll report could be spun favorably even if it misses estimates due to superstorm Sandy.
Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production.
I am going to present the wire in a little different slant today, as I mentioned last week we are going to try some new approaches of doing things as we head into the New Year and since markets are as slow as they are I thought we would try a few new things.
Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production. These could take WTI down toward the $85.00/bbl level through year-end unless a fix to the
You must be logged in to post a comment.