The overnight market seems to continue to digest the ideas that the yields are still coming in above expectations and that the USDA figures will show significant increases. The beans have eased back by 10-13 cents most of the evening session, meal has lost $4, oil is down 25-30 points, and corn fell by another 5-7 while wheat is standing alone trading on the positive side gaining 2-4 cents.
Welcome to Monday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. markets started the 4th quarter on uneven footing last week that somehow managed to pull off a positive week with the Dow Jones sitting at its best level since December 2007.
The music seems as if it is starting to play again as once again the export sales remind us that the world is running out of beans. The beans now have erased all the losses of earlier in the week trading +30, meal has gained $7, oil increased by
30 points, corn increased by 6-8 and wheat has posted gains of 4-5 cents
The overnight trade continues to show that margins are causing $ flow to exit the building as frustration seems to be taking over. The beans have lost double digits again, meal fell by nearly $5, corn gave back 6-8 cents, and wheat has lost 7-8 while bean oil is the shining star trading on the positive side by 3 points.
The S&P is up over 14% on the year, $ follows $ and the world loves equities over nearly everything else, is it any surprise to see a surge in equities yesterday while grains get punished and it happened to be the 1st day of the new quarter?
The overnight session gives a bit for everyone as the market continues to digest the past USDA report. The corn market is the market back on the front page as supplies remain tight. The beans are also tight but not as tight as many had assumed and wheat is also shrinking on the supply side. The bottom line is that the USDA once again was able to absorb some early harvest into the old crop figures and as long as there is early harvest this pattern seems to work. The question is what do they do when there isn’t an early harvest? This is a debate for another time as it doesn’t matter today.
What a difference a month makes, just 30 days ago the bean and corn markets were pushing near all-time highs with thoughts of another 10% surge, there wasn’t many anticipating that the 10% move would be lower. The seasonal tendency all points towards September being a dismal month to be long grains, but this year was different…right? Apparently not. So what does the market do from here?
The overnight markets have attempted once again to recover from some of the punches it has taken in the gut over the past few weeks. It’s amazing to look back at seasonal trades and think “why didn’t I respond to what history has taught me”? One of the biggest seasonal trades in grains is to sell the market through September, this has been no different yet on September 1st the perception was that this year is different. Well if we look back at history again there is typically a quick 50% retracement of the September losses during the first few weeks of October.
