Great expectations was a classic novel following the growth of a poor child and his trials and tribulations to find success in his life. Fabulous story.

Recently, we have seen revolutions in technology that point towards a renewed improvement in the ways in which people are able to live, standard of living.

There is no doubt that many millions of people around the globe have risen out of abject poverty over the last three decades and there is even more promise on the horizon as technology and fungibility of investable assets are transferred worldwide. It is a dynamic string that is not a straight static line reflecting organic growth, old parts die and are renewed and new parts added.

The recent bull markets in equities, real estate, and the new methods of funding, coinciding with future expectations of rising wages and personal growth bode well for the future. If there is anything I know about the way businesses and the FED looks at indicators , expectations is one of their important ones to plan for and make decisions affecting the future.

The FED uses the term liftoff, business calls it capital spending, governments call it infrastructure etc. It’s called spending. Confidence is the biggest component, and with just the right tweaking of policy or twittering of expectations, it could build rather dramatically, which is why when one good headline strikes things move fast.

I call this pent up desire or enthusiasm after some extended time of low expectations, and pain caused by too much of everything there is no doubt that people are beginning to feel better. Despite all of the media/government “state of fear" propaganda, people are ignoring it and starting to move on with their lives. Pollsters take this as indifference, but in reality people are very passionate about their lives and circles.

History speaks, it’s never the same script, but usually after a sharp rally in paper assets and huge consolidation, the pendulum begins to swing the other way. Old tools to measure this, even computers will never measure with success when someone or group changes their minds and direction. The tools and computers always lag since by definition they rely on input. I suspect that we are in the early stages of a physical bull market.

Perhaps it’s just common sense that once you reach zero there is no way but up, or it’s the conversation with a business owner who says he needs to hire, or traffic jams in the morning, or a full restaurant. To quote a line from Jurassic Park, "life will not be denied". With this in mind, and recent inflation data, one could see signs that commodity and labor have bottomed. In stock trader jargon, it’s down to book value. I think the bond market is sensing this despite its liquidity problems and QE.

Paper inflation usually leads to physical and labor bull markets, we might be at the beginning. It will not be the same as in the past, and investors and traders will have to develop the "feel”. But, I think the streaming is about to begin.

John is a Senior Broker at Sierra Mesa Trading and has been working with clients in the field of financial products for over 25 years. John can be reached at LinkedIn