Natural Gas Commentary

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Published Tuesday afternoon, 10/16/12

 

Natural Gas traded lower, settling $3.437 down $0.049 (1.4%). The curve was mixed, (X/Z $0.045 lower as the UNG roll continues through Thursday, H13/J13 $0.005 weaker, J13/V13 $0.005 firmer), 13/16 was $0.03 firmer. Hub cash was ~$0.17 back this morning, Z-6 down $0.05 to $3.45. The 12z was in line with overnight models showing a warm pattern for the Central and Eastern U.S. through the 6-10 period. The West Coast was cooler than previous models. The 11-15 day was warmer East Coast during the beginning of the 11-15 day as ridging was stronger. Thursday we are expecting an injection of 50 Bcf, lower than 2011’s 103 Bcf injection and the 5-yr average 74 Bcf injection. This week’s # will lower the YoY and 5-yr storage surplus to ~150 Bcf and 250 Bcf.

 

Vol was offered today: (X12 345 17.50 19.00 38.20% 0.67% Z12 375 35.00 36.50 36.12% -0.06% F13 390 46.50 48.00 34.24% -0.49% G13 390 55.50 57.00 33.78% -0.14% H13 385 61.50 62.00 33.40% -0.17% J13 385 63.00 65.00 31.53% 0.06% K13 385 67.00 69.00 30.71% 0.08% M13 390 72.00 74.00 30.09% 0.07% N13 395 76.50 78.50 29.77% -0.52% Q13 395 81.50 83.50 29.94% -0.13% U13 395 87.50 89.50 30.48% 0.22% V13 400 93.50 95.50 30.79% 0.04%).

Technical’s have turned bearish but are short-term oversold. Resistance is found at $3.55, $3.64, $3.75. On the downside we see support at $3.32, $3.23, $3.16, $3.07, $2.95.

 

CSO's
X/Z ref -.33
-.25c .25/.75
-.30p 1/1.5
-.35p 1.25/2
Z/F ref -.13
-.15 std 4.75/5.5
-.20p .25/1.25
H13/J13 ref .04
-.10p .5/1.25
-.05p 1.25/2
0p 2.25/3
0c 7/7.75
.05c 4.5/5
.15c 3/3.25
.25c 2/2.5
.50c 1/1.5
J13/V13 ref -.155
-.05c .5/1.25
-.10c 1.75/2.25
-.15 std 9/9.75
-.15c 4.25/5
-.20p 3.75/4.5
-.25p 2.25/2.75
-.30p 1.5/2
H14/J14 ref .19
0p 3.5/4.25
.25c 13/13.75
.50c 8.5/9.25
1.00c 3.25/4
V13/F14 ref -.39
-.30c 4.25/5

 

Editor’s Note: Natural Gas Commentary readers who are equity investors/traders only can gain access to the energy space through the following exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Natural Gas ETFS

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG, quote)

United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL, quote)

First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG, quote)

 

IMPORTANT NOTICE:  Trading of commodities and commodity futures and options, and other commodity derivatives has substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable or appropriate for all persons.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  The information in this piece is based on sources that are believed to be reliable, but it is not warranted to be accurate or complete, and no performance or results from use of the information are warranted.  This piece is not a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell commodities or commodity derivatives. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

 

 

 

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