Welcome to today’s Morning Coffee Break – On the first day of trading this week traders are waking up to lower futures in the U.S. stock indexes after last week’s rally sparked by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive new round of quantitative (QE3) easing last week Thursday.
U.S. markets seem to be following global markets lower as we kick off the last week of June. Investors are worried about the upcoming European Union summit that ruled not to have Greece leaders attend the summit.
All 3 U.S. stock indexes are pointing to a higher open as investors focus on the FOMC meeting and domestic issues facing U.S. economy. The question of the day is “what will the Fed do?”
Will the trend continue in U.S. markets? Each time the S&P 500 [stock ^SPX] began the week down 1% or more such as yesterday the U.S. markets closed the week out lower 5 out 6 times.
The Euro bounced sharply off of multi-year lows in a week of impressive recovery for the US S&P 500 and broader financial markets.
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. While inflation rates are likely to stay above 2% for the remainder of 2012, over the policy-relevant horizon we expect price developments to remain in line with price stability. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term
U.S. auto manufactures continues to improve with all U.S. manufactures posting double digit sales gains for the month of May although shy of analyst’s expectations. Ford Motor Company [F, $[stock F] sales rose 21% for the month of May falling short of both Barclays and Edmunds.com expectations.
European investors’ optimism for the Eurozone has reached a 3-year low according to a Sentix survey. The Sentix investor confidence for June came in at -28.9, the lowest score since May 2009, but still better than analysts’ expectations for a -30.0 survey result. Back in March of this year, the survey reached a six month high at -8.2, before the survey results declined for the next four straight months.
The British Pound tumbled near year-to-date lows and took the dubious honor of worst-performing major currency on the week, falling almost four percent against the surging Japanese Yen. Disappointing UK PMI Manufacturing survey numbers capped a difficult week for the British Pound, and indeed the stage is set for further declines into an important week ahead.
Technical screens found another ETF that has confirmed a weekly triangle suggesting continuation of the current bearish trend. The pattern is confirmed with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) pushing below the trendline at the same time the moving average of the RSI is moving lower.
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