The Fantasy World Of The FED
Do you remember the halcyon days when rising interest rates and increasing interest rate differentials were the precursor to a stronger currency?
Do you remember the halcyon days when rising interest rates and increasing interest rate differentials were the precursor to a stronger currency?
For US equity traders and investors these are worrying times, as the NQ emini continues to blast its way ever higher, and leaving its sister indices becalmed and lacking direction, with the ES emini a classic example.
As markets return to full participation following the Easter recess, and as a new trading week get’s underway, I thought it would be apposite to consider the three primary currencies of the US dollar, the yen and the euro on the daily timeframes.
Crude oil prices surged a huge $3 dollars or 5% higher at the Asian open with Brent briefly trading north of $57 and WTI above $54 a barrel before pulling back slightly.
For obvious reasons, all the focus is on the OPEC meeting. As we pointed out the possibility yesterday, oil prices have bounced back very strongly today on renewed hopes that oil ministers will, after all, be able to hammer out a deal later on to limit crude production.
It is safe to say that markets don’t like uncertainty but this is on another level. Fears that Donald Trump was going to win the election saw risk-sensitive assets drop faster than Hillary Clinton’s hopes of becoming the next US President overnight.
European stock markets started this last day of the month and quarter sharply lower as concerns over Deutsche Bank intensified, which undermined sentiment in the financial sector once again.
Some are born to lead and others to follow, and the NQ emini has once again regained its rightful place as leader of US equity markets, following a period when it has been lagging behind its two sisters.
Nervous best describes US equity markets today, and with so many influences now coming to bear, and this nervous tension can only increase over the next few weeks.
The investor confidence index compiled by the China (FXI, quote) Securities Investor Protection Fund Corp. (SIPF) dropped from 54.9 in June to 51.6 in July.