It’s been an interesting few weeks for equity markets, with the usual crop of doom and gloom ‘experts’ emerging from the undergrowth to call the top of the market, before disappearing equally quickly, realizing that they were wrong
One of the best barometer’s of market sentiment is the NQ (e-mini future for the NASDAQ), and whilst many analysts were forecasting market meltdown the NQ was quietly reversing and clearly signalling a short term reversal. The bears, once again, have been sent smartly back to their caves!
As I have written many times before it has been a torrid time for gold bugs, who have seen the precious metal collapse from the dizzy heights of almost $2000 per ounce to plumb the lows of $1200 per ounce.
The warning flags of potential short term weakness have been flying for some time on the Dow Jones cash index, and the associated derivative E-mini YM futures contract.
Whilst as traders and people, we all tend to make New Year resolutions. The market however seems set to continue in the same vein as in 2013, with the primary focus remaining the constant debate of tapering, and as I have said before, what I call ‘tweaking’.
With markets having been given a more or less clear roadmap for the future of QE, and so removing a degree of uncertainty, it now only remains for us to monitor closely our benchmark charts, namely the USD index and the VIX , whilst keeping a close watch on price action and volume.
For intraday emini index traders, last nights FED meeting delivered a classic lesson in volume price analysis (VPA).
The Goldman Sachs (GS, quote) Hedge Fund Report was released this morning providing readers a significant amount of hedge fund data including the fund’s top holding based on their 13F filings from the second quarter.
With the long summer days now coming to an end, it’s time to re-visit that perennial gauge of market risk, the VIX for a view of whether the equity market is indeed over bought, and likely to reverse dramatically.
The sideways stock market that has been with us since late July doesn’t appear to want to change. Equities are somewhat in a dead market at this time.
