Published Friday morning, 11/2/12 The overnight markets are easing due to the fact that FCS issued its estimates yesterday afternoon and to no surprise the bean yield was raised to 39.1 with overall production at 2.959b. The corn yield was also raised to 124 which is a bit surprising with overall production at 10.884. The markets as of 8CST are trading down 7-8 in the old crop beans while
The overnight markets have continued where yesterday left off with gains being posted in nearly every market. The grain market seem to be gaining some interest again as the equity markets have lost nearly 4% in the past week, this lowers the overall bench market of returns for the year and gives some more runway to trade and place risk back on knowing that the equity benchmark is now up 11% rather than 15%.
The overnight markets have continued where yesterday left off with gains being posted in nearly every market. The grain market seem to be gaining some interest again as the equity markets have lost nearly 4% in the past week, this lowers the overall bench market of returns for the year and gives some more runway to trade and place risk back on knowing that the equity benchmark is now up 11% rather than 15%.
It’s a new day and a new week and after last week’s dismal start to market sentiment and price activity the markets actually finished the week higher vs. the previous week and is continuing the momentum this morning.
It’s hard to believe that the markets are actually now higher on the week by nearly 35 cents in beans and 10 cents in corn after the week had started. The overnight markets are attempting to sustain the gains of yesterday. The overnight news that spiked the wheat markets higher is based on the fact that Ukraine announced they will ban wheat exports starting on November 15th, there is still a lack of clarity if this affects the sales on the books that are scheduled to ship after the 15th or just preventing any further sales.
The overnight markets have made a feeble attempt of recovering some of the devastating losses that have occurred in the past 2 trading session. The beans as of 8:00Cst are hovering near 10 cents higher in the session, meal has gained $3, oil increased by 40-50 points, corn increased by 6-8 and wheat has gained 8-10. Its Tuesday and the markets have been punished over the past few sessions, don’t be too quick to jump back on the bull wagon as there has been extreme technical damage and the beans have a gap that should be filled down to 1478 that dates back to June.
Daily Grains Commentary -The overnight markets remain subdued as it’s now just a waiting game for another USDA report. The beans are trading with minor losses so far in the early AM hours, meal has lost a few $’s while oil has gained a small amount. The wheat is trading slightly higher as weather fears in Australia are catching more attention and corn is down a few cents as further long liquidation is taking place.
The overnight market seems to continue to digest the ideas that the yields are still coming in above expectations and that the USDA figures will show significant increases. The beans have eased back by 10-13 cents most of the evening session, meal has lost $4, oil is down 25-30 points, and corn fell by another 5-7 while wheat is standing alone trading on the positive side gaining 2-4 cents.
What a difference a month makes, just 30 days ago the bean and corn markets were pushing near all-time highs with thoughts of another 10% surge, there wasn’t many anticipating that the 10% move would be lower. The seasonal tendency all points towards September being a dismal month to be long grains, but this year was different…right? Apparently not. So what does the market do from here?
The overnight markets have attempted once again to recover from some of the punches it has taken in the gut over the past few weeks. It’s amazing to look back at seasonal trades and think “why didn’t I respond to what history has taught me”? One of the biggest seasonal trades in grains is to sell the market through September, this has been no different yet on September 1st the perception was that this year is different. Well if we look back at history again there is typically a quick 50% retracement of the September losses during the first few weeks of October.
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