Natural Gas traded higher settling $3.418 up $0.06 1.8%. The curve was weaker, 13/16 down $0.08 (16-20 up btwn $0.08-$0.13). Hub cash was firmer, ~$0.08 back this morning, Z-6 up $0.15 to $3.55. The 12z was warmer Midwest and South and much cooler West Coast/Plains during the 6-10 day.
Daily Energy Report – The oil markets may trade higher again in the near-term, however, the fundamental picture still remains somewhat weak at the moment.
WTI futures bumped up against resistance from the 50-day MA at the day’s high yesterday, but the rally was assisted by favorable news on the Seaway pipeline and some progress made on the fiscal cliff. A breakout above the 50-day will likely require further progress on cliff negotiations as well as signs of economic growth and improving oil fundamentals.
Oil markets may continue their sideways trend this week, as the trade continues to face pressure from a lack of progress on the fiscal cliff. Background pressure will remain in effect from growing domestic oil production, elevated oil inventories, and last week’s hold at the 50-day moving averages in Brent and WTI.
Oil prices created an inside-day in WTI yesterday and both Brent and WTI again had trouble with their 50-day moving averages. Those technicals may offer pressure again in today’s trade, where the market will also be weighed down by continued growth in U.S. oil production, growth in oil stocks, building gasoline inventories, and generally weak demand.
Oil prices rallied nicely in yesterday’s trade but once again had trouble getting above the 50-day moving averages in WTI and Brent. Today’s trade could witness a similar disposition, as the general reaction by risk markets yesterday to “bullish” news from the Fed was to finish either lower on the day (as equities did) or significantly below the day’s highs (as energies and precious metals did).
Rice_GrainsThe overnight markets are rolling over as the morning is progressing as once again there is not much of any bullish influences in any market so far. The beans are down 2-4 cents, meal has lost $1, oil is down 5-10 points, corn is down 3-4 and wheat is down 5-6.
The market appears as though it will trade to the downside in the near-term thanks to Monday’s break of key channel support and due to the inability to maintain rallies. Pressure may also come from a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks, the potential that OPEC leaves production unchanged at today’s meeting, building levels of U.S. gasoline stocks, and high levels of U.S. oil production.
Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may trade lower in the near-term, as Monday’s action failed to respond to moderately favorable developments. There was support for yesterday’s trade given by the bottom of a rising channel pattern at $86.20 and from a recovery in economic data from China and Germany. However, an uninspiring trade in the stock market and a lack of progress in fiscal cliff talks added on to other
The overnight markets are all over the place, most recently collapsing from 7-8CST with beans trading down more than double digits. The meal has quickly lost $3-4, oil remains 20-30 points lower, corn is melting trading down 5-6 and wheat has drifted lower trading down 4-5 cents.
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