The overnight markets once again are attempting to rebound after yet another disappointing day yesterday. The beans are marginally higher, meal is down in the nearby contracts and higher marginally in the deferred, oil has gained 25-30 points, corn is up 2-3 while wheat has gained 3-4. The bottom line is that the overall market is in a quagmire right now and there is not much influential news.
The overnight markets have made a feeble attempt of recovering some of the devastating losses that have occurred in the past 2 trading session. The beans as of 8:00Cst are hovering near 10 cents higher in the session, meal has gained $3, oil increased by 40-50 points, corn increased by 6-8 and wheat has gained 8-10. Its Tuesday and the markets have been punished over the past few sessions, don’t be too quick to jump back on the bull wagon as there has been extreme technical damage and the beans have a gap that should be filled down to 1478 that dates back to June.
The S&P is up over 14% on the year, $ follows $ and the world loves equities over nearly everything else, is it any surprise to see a surge in equities yesterday while grains get punished and it happened to be the 1st day of the new quarter?
The overnight session gives a bit for everyone as the market continues to digest the past USDA report. The corn market is the market back on the front page as supplies remain tight. The beans are also tight but not as tight as many had assumed and wheat is also shrinking on the supply side. The bottom line is that the USDA once again was able to absorb some early harvest into the old crop figures and as long as there is early harvest this pattern seems to work. The question is what do they do when there isn’t an early harvest? This is a debate for another time as it doesn’t matter today.
What a difference a month makes, just 30 days ago the bean and corn markets were pushing near all-time highs with thoughts of another 10% surge, there wasn’t many anticipating that the 10% move would be lower. The seasonal tendency all points towards September being a dismal month to be long grains, but this year was different…right? Apparently not. So what does the market do from here?
The overnight markets have attempted once again to recover from some of the punches it has taken in the gut over the past few weeks. It’s amazing to look back at seasonal trades and think “why didn’t I respond to what history has taught me”? One of the biggest seasonal trades in grains is to sell the market through September, this has been no different yet on September 1st the perception was that this year is different. Well if we look back at history again there is typically a quick 50% retracement of the September losses during the first few weeks of October.
Crude oil continue to moved lower in today’s session on fear of global economic growth and worries about Spanish debt crisis spinning out of control. Energy traders as well traders of growth commodities became cautious on Monday when Federal Reserve Bank of New York index was reported to have fallen to -10.4 for the month of September hitting a 3 year low. The previous months reading was -5.8 with analysts’
Gold was sharply higher at the close of trade this week with the precious metal surging 3.87% to close at $1622.75 in New York. The rally marks the largest single week advance since the week ending January 27th when prices soared by more than 4.4% as it approached the $1740 level
Today Facebook IPO team will be having breakfast with Boston base fund managers but they are likely to be in for a disappointment right at the start with a no show of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
