Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production.
Energy Price Outlook Oil prices may fall slightly in the near-term, as pressure is offered by technical factors and the lack of progress in fiscal cliff negotiations. Background pressure will come from next week’s OPEC meeting where quotas are expected to be left unchanged, and from the growing amount of U.S. oil production. These could take WTI down toward the $85.00/bbl level through year-end unless a fix to the
Welcomes to today’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. markets are coming of the largest single day gains since early September. Depending on which analysts have the airways the move was due to an extreme oversold condition while others point to the growing confidence in a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.
Oil prices may continue to fall in the near-term, with WTI potentially reaching $80.00 over the next few weeks. December WTI will expire today, and could lead to a similarly lopsided trade as yesterday’s expiration of December Brent.
Look for the slow drift lower to continue in the near-term, as worries about the health of the economy and the fiscal cliff dominate. Stocks sold off yesterday on various corporate and European news items, but closed near the bottom of last week’s trading range as well as close to a new four-month low.
This week’s trade in the oil market may witness bottoming action take place, as the U.S. election begins to move to center stage. There may also be an exit from the markets by hedge funds that close their books on Oct 31st, but the impact they actually exert may be somewhat limited in the near-term as their long positioning has already been reduced.
The oil market may continue its short-term correction in the near-term, but it’s also entering a support range between
$81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs exited the market during Monday’s session.
Breaking News – Crude Oil Inventories
Oil prices may continue their short-term correction over the next few days, with support in WTI offered between $81.00 and $85.00/bbl. We think that the rate of decline will slow in the near-term, as some of the impulsive selling and weak longs have exited the market. A focus will be on the FOMC announcement today, but little change in policy is expected after the last meeting’s implementation of QE3.
Welcome to Monday’s Morning Coffee Break – U.S. futures are suggesting a positive open this morning after Friday’s sharpest one day drop in nearly four months. Market participants will be starting the week off with no economic data releases putting the focus on earnings and U.S. politics. Headlines in the Euro Zone will have a stronger impact on U.S. markets as well.
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