Grains Commentary
The overnight markets have once again given a little for everyone as the markets have traded on both sides but seem to gaining some strength through the early AM hours so far.
The overnight markets have once again given a little for everyone as the markets have traded on both sides but seem to gaining some strength through the early AM hours so far.
The markets are trying to recover from the bad hang over of the first week of 2013 as grain markets are testing areas that have not been seen since before the start of the worst drought in 100 years.
Shares of small-cap biotech company Acura Pharmaceuticals (ACUR, quote) soared once again on Tuesday after a massive rally in the name during Monday’s trading session. The stock surged 42 percent and closed the day at $3.49. Acura opened the session at $2.49 and traded all the way up to $4.50 at one point in the morning.
The overnight markets once again have lost the momentum as it seems the entire market place is watching the same movie. The beans are trading down 10-12, meal is down $3-4, oil has eased by 20 points, corn is down 2-3 and wheat is hovering around unchanged.
The overnight markets have continued where yesterday left off with gains being posted in nearly every market. The grain market seem to be gaining some interest again as the equity markets have lost nearly 4% in the past week, this lowers the overall bench market of returns for the year and gives some more runway to trade and place risk back on knowing that the equity benchmark is now up 11% rather than 15%.
The overnight markets once again are attempting to rebound after yet another disappointing day yesterday. The beans are marginally higher, meal is down in the nearby contracts and higher marginally in the deferred, oil has gained 25-30 points, corn is up 2-3 while wheat has gained 3-4. The bottom line is that the overall market is in a quagmire right now and there is not much influential news.
The overnight markets have made a feeble attempt of recovering some of the devastating losses that have occurred in the past 2 trading session. The beans as of 8:00Cst are hovering near 10 cents higher in the session, meal has gained $3, oil increased by 40-50 points, corn increased by 6-8 and wheat has gained 8-10. Its Tuesday and the markets have been punished over the past few sessions, don’t be too quick to jump back on the bull wagon as there has been extreme technical damage and the beans have a gap that should be filled down to 1478 that dates back to June.
What a difference a month makes, just 30 days ago the bean and corn markets were pushing near all-time highs with thoughts of another 10% surge, there wasn’t many anticipating that the 10% move would be lower. The seasonal tendency all points towards September being a dismal month to be long grains, but this year was different…right? Apparently not. So what does the market do from here?
The overnight markets have attempted once again to recover from some of the punches it has taken in the gut over the past few weeks. It’s amazing to look back at seasonal trades and think “why didn’t I respond to what history has taught me”? One of the biggest seasonal trades in grains is to sell the market through September, this has been no different yet on September 1st the perception was that this year is different. Well if we look back at history again there is typically a quick 50% retracement of the September losses during the first few weeks of October.
As we approach the 4th and final quarter of 2012 coupled with the Bernanke floor thanks to the unlimited buying of mortgage backed securities banks like JP Morgan (JPM, quote), Wells Fargo (WFC, quote) and Bank of America (BAC, quote) should do well especially with large funds chasing for performance going into year end.